ah, I almost forgot how bad it is to work on an entire article only to have Donald Trump completely change the tariff rates just as I finish

Friday: you now have absolute certainty on tariffs Saturday: I am raising the tariff to 15%

At least now there will be a Section 301 comment process that lawyers and lobbyists can use to make submissions and bill their clients!

The economic concerns that motivated Congress to enact Section 122 are not present today.

Following up on this, it appears the window is open. www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-... cc:@eamonjavers.bsky.social

I wrote something about the new Section 122 "temporary import surcharge" -- let's just call it a tariff though, right? -- but it won't answer many of your questions, so don't get your hopes up too high!

Is that really a problem? These are... treasuries we are talking about?

Section 122 invocation vs. reality (reserves, the $)... #EconSky econbrowser.com/archives/202...

Maybe. Most 301 cases seem to take a year or more. 232 might be a little quicker but requires establishing that foreign practices are a national security threat. There are significant hurdles to get over for both which, of course, is why Trump went with his IEPPA shortcut.

For them to frame this chart as a bad thing is wild. And worth noting that all the deals that are supposedly being cut to have foreigners make huge investments in US manufacturing etc. would exacerbate the very "problem" they are describing.

Hassett retracts his admonition of the Fed economists: “The Fed’s independence extends to its research. It and it alone must decide what research to conduct to further its mission. The authors of this study are all excellent economists.” larrykotlikoff.substack.com/p/kevin-hass...

This wasn't an apology, or a real retraction. It was basically "I'm sorry you feel that way."

Good news: Happy Kevin walks back his call for NY Fed economists to be disciplined. Bad news: It's bullshit. He says the Fed should stay out of issues like... whether tariffs cause inflation. But inflation is central to monetary policy! He's still saying: The regime shall not be contradicted.