Feb 23, 2026

Astonishing that this post by Citrini Research was responsible for billions in market cap getting vaporized today. What did you think of this "thought exercise"? Would love to see @citrini.bsky.social active here on Bluesky www.citriniresearch.com/p/2028gic

As always w/ @citrini.bsky.social an interesting read but I’m not sure it’s internally consistent. Main questions that came to mind: 1/ Agent owners: what are they doing with the money they’re making? Why isn’t THAT fueling employment, GDP ? stock prices? www.citriniresearch.com/p/2028gic

I’m pretty skeptical, in part because they completely misunderstand how platform cos build their two-sided network effect. The code isn’t novel, it’s the massive investment in restaurant/driver/customer familiarity that is hard to replicate. They’re massively misstating where so many moats come from

Some proof this is the Citrini Research selloff: The viral dystopian post is hitting everywhere! -James van Geelen is top 3 in Bloomberg profile views over the past hour -4.5M impressions, 2.1K RTs, 12K bookmarks on OG post (per X) sherwood.news/markets/soft...

We've reached the "Anthropic says" stage of the AI hype cycle It differs from the "OpenAI says" stage, where everything went up. And the "Oracle says" stage, where CDS spreads blew out Fear not, however, because 48 hours from now, another quarter put from the "Nvidia says" stage will be launched

$IBM -10% on a rope down ... why? Because of Anthropic of course

Big Blue, big red... worst day this century...

Like there’s a certain “I always knew Workday was shit” confirmation bias one can share freely that one simply could not express when these names were doubling in 2023.

'AI will replace all white collar work' Investors: 'YES, YES!!!!' 'AI will solve all outstanding scientific problems and propel us to the stars' Investors: 'Ooooohh, aaaahhh!!' 'AI will disrupt B2B SAAS' Investors: 'Well, this is just fantastical nonsense. Is everyone stupid now?!'

So, DOGE would have been able to do a lot more damage had this dropped a year ago.

So dumb, given that Anthropic shared this capability..... three months ago www.youtube.com/watch?v=OwMu...

Speech by Governor Waller on the economic outlook: www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/s... Watch live: www.youtube.com/live/ARrKDX-... Learn more about Governor Waller: www.federalreserve.gov/aboutthefed/...

Fed governor Chris Waller conditions his support for a March cut (or hold) on the February payroll data due for release on March 6. “As things stand today, I rate these two possible outcomes as close to a coin flip.” www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/s...

#Fed Gov Waller: « If employment data support the idea of an improvement in the labor market that continued in Feb, along with additional progress toward 2% inflation, that could result in my outlook turning a bit more positive and my view of appropriate monetary policy may tilt toward a pause… »

Waller equally weights labor markets slowing further and reacceleration (leading to inflation). That’s a hawkish shift relative to his prior stance that heavily over-weighted the labor market risks. But not a dramatic one.

Waller, a Fed governor who dissented against January's rate cut pause, said he is open to holding rates steady in March if the labor market continues to stabilize. He also doesn't expect the Supreme Court ruling to impact his rate outlook www.nytimes.com/2026/02/23/b... @nytimes.com

Exporters & importers eating price hikes, planned markups. BUT CPI data still not showing again. Not clear how IEEPA tariffs decision will affect inflation. Notes Feb emp & PCE inflation for Jan before March meeting. Coin flip on his views for March. #NABE2026 Notes AI: CEOs focus on cuts.

Fed Governor Waller on court tariff decision impact: “This ruling is unlikely to have a significant impact on my view of the appropriate stance of policy.”

March cut may be a coin flip for Waller but it's not for the FOMC. Cut odds close to zero

Federal Reserve's Waller sees some signs of K-shaped economy:

On the question of returning to scarce reserves regime « Scarcity has never been and never will be efficient ». Adds that in economics scarcity never increases welfare. Calls the idea of returning. The balance sheet from ample to scarce regime, « stupid »

I'm assuming this is a quote from a Waller interview (certainly looks like him). I'm puzzled. Yes, typically increasing scarcity is a bad thing. But the word "scarcity" used to describe a small central bank balance sheet is a misnomer.

Looks a lot like vacancies have stabilised since the government shutdown ended though.

Fed Gov Chris Waller argues that needs to be accountable on inflation. Beauty of a target and the PCE index is that it holds the Fed accountable. Supports data dependence as need it much like using GPS to get to a restaurant.

Gov. Waller this a.m.: "Jobs last year [were] 181,000 and that’s going to get revised down, trust me. 2.9 million people entered the labor force despite the immigration [drop], OK?" Connection to my recent vid: Off-the-sidelines flow pumping workers in (2mil in Jan.) in the face of stagnant demand.